India is worried about a food crisis. So should we.
9 October 2026
“There is going to be a major food crisis, probably in the coming months”. These were the words of Indian Foreign Minister, S. Jaishankar recently at an Asia Society Policy Institute forum a few weeks ago.
The causes, he said, were the compounding effects of the energy crisis due to the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the impacts of the on-going super El Niño. An El Niño shifts rainfall patterns leading to droughts or floods, both of which are destructive on its own – and this year’s El Niño is forecasted to be the world’s strongest on record.
The El Niño effects in Sri Lanka are predicted to last from October 2026 to January 2027. This coincides with Sri Lanka’s largest cultivation period – the Maha season. The 2016-17 droughts which were also caused by El Niño were Sri Lanka’s worst; paddy production for the year fell by ~50%. It is predicted that this year’s El Niño will cause heavy rainfall and flooding in Sri Lanka.
Six months ago, we wrote about the impact of the US-Iran war on Sri Lanka’s food affordability and availability. The war still wages on, with no clear end in sight. Inflation has picked up significantly since then – most recently at 8%. Since then, fuel prices were increased once again – it is safe to say that inflation will remain elevated in the coming months.
Sri Lanka imports almost all of the chemical fertiliser used in agricultural production. Typically, around July and August Sri Lanka begins importing more quantities of fertiliser in preparation for the Maha season which commences in October. But this July and August, fertiliser import volumes were down significantly – by as much as ~75% compared to the same months in the last 2 years.
The fertiliser import bill last year in August was US$ 43 million. This August’s fertiliser import bill was only US$5.7 million. Recently it was also reported that a Sri Lanka-bound Urea shipment was stuck in the Strait of Hormuz, raising more concerns about our ability to obtain necessary fertiliser stocks before on time.
So, what does this all mean? In simple terms, Sri Lanka’s food security is at risk.
Food security is multifaceted.
There are 4 pillars on which food security is assessed.
1. The physical availability of food – when you go to the market is there food available to purchase?
2. Access to food – is the food that is available affordable compared to household incomes?
3. Food utilisation – is food used in a way that meets the dietary requirements of the population? Is energy, protein, vitamin requirements met?
4. Stability of the other 3 pillars – are the previous 3 pillars being upheld consistently?
A breakdown in any of the 3 dimensions represents an instability that affects food security.
According to the World Bank’s latest estimates – poverty doubled between 2019 and 2023, with 2 million more people being pushed into poverty. In 2026, they say, 40% of Sri Lankans remain poor or at risk of falling into poverty. Real wages fell significantly and are yet to recover fully. Child malnutrition has risen significantly and remain elevated. So, on the second pillar – access to food – Sri Lanka has already been faring poorly since the crisis.
India is a net exporter of food, exporting ~US$ 50 billion annually. If India is worried about a food crisis – that should send alarm bells blaring in Sri Lanka. We import a lot of food from India; around 250,000 MTs of Bombay Onions, 190,000 MTs of sugar and 45,000 MTs of chillies. In addition to that we import some varieties of rice, chickpeas, green gram, dhal, red onions and other vegetables from India.
Recently it was reported that delays in maize imports will threaten chicken and egg production. The President of the All-Island Poultry Association of Sri Lanka says that ~20% of small poultry producers have withdrawnfrom production. The Crop Forecast for Yala 2026 by the Department of Agriculture says that 88% of targets for paddy sown were met. However, only 61%, 54% and 54% of the targets for other field crops, up-country vegetables and low-country vegetables respectively were met. This is indicative of the shortages that can be expected soon.
So, with domestic production and import source markets being impacted, the first pillar – the physical availability of food - is facing major downside risks. Based on the first two pillars alone, it is obvious that Sri Lanka faces a major food security problem which is worsening by the day due to the ongoing conflicts and climate impacts.
By Rehana Thowfeek, Co-Founder & Director of Civic Education, Arutha
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